IPCC Model Simulations of Future Climate Change in Southeast Asia (MS Defense)
By Mr. Chakkrit Reamruk, Department of Meteorology, SJSU
ABSTRACT:
The coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) are used to investigate climate change over Southeast Asia (SEA) in the 21st century. Simulations of the 20th century temperature and precipitation are compared to observations and guide the selection of the most appropriate models for the study of 21st century climate. These models are run for both low (B1), and high (A2) emission scenarios. By 2100, model projections show SEA temperature rising by 1.0-2.1°C for the B1 scenario and 2.1-3.8°C for the A2 scenario. In both scenarios, the average precipitation increases by 125-240 mm, although there is a large model to model variability. Changes in extreme indices, such as the number of heat wave days, nighttime temperature and precipitation intensity are also found to increase significantly in the later half of the 21st century.
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