Connections between Stratospheric Perturbations and Climate Change - Research and Teaching Integration

 

Project supported by the NSF Career Program

 

Overview

Human induced climate change is arguably one of today’s most important scientific and social challenges (McCarthy et al. 2001).  Predictions from the International Panel on Climate Change suggest that global temperatures over the next hundred years will increase by 1-5ºC, although significant uncertainties remain (Houghton et al. 2001).  Solutions that work towards effective mitigation and adaptation to the changing climate require an improved understanding of the science of climate change and improved communication of these results in a useful and appropriate manner to ensure a well-informed citizenry.  The five-year career development plan (CDP) represents a committed effort to integrate the PI’s research interest in stratospheric dynamics and climate with high school and university science education. 

 

Scientific Goals:

 

Increasing observational and modeling studies suggest that stratospheric variations may influence the climate of the troposphere (Thompson and Wallace 1998) and play a role in our understanding of the anthropogenic signal (Shindell et al. 1999).  Among the important sources of natural variability in the stratosphere, including the solar cycle and volcanic eruptions, are the periodic variations in tropical winds known as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).  Although the QBO has been studied for decades, the mechanisms responsible for its origin and variability are still not well characterized.  The proposed research seeks to understand better the QBO and its role in climate variations of the stratosphere and troposphere through a series of modeling activities.  Because the present atmosphere is undergoing changes in its composition (e.g. CO2, O3), it is important to identify and quantify sources of variability inherent in the climate system, and assess how this variability may change in the future.  A unique aspect of this work is a systematic and physically based approach towards understanding the source of QBO variability and its influence on stratospheric circulation and climate.  The proposed research is focused on three activities:

 

·         Investigate the sensitivity of the QBO to atmospheric perturbations (Activity 1). 

·         Investigate the sensitivity of the climate system to variations in the QBO (Activity 2).

 

Educational Goals:

 

Surveys of both student and teacher opinions indicate that although climate change is an important global concern, only a small fraction can accurately articulate the basic science of climate change (Dove 1996; Meadows and Wiesenmayer 1999). While the scientific base of knowledge about climate change is growing, improvements in student understanding are urgently needed (Orr 1996).  The education component to this CDP is focused on improving student and teacher understanding of climate change through the following activities:

 

·         Conduct a detailed study that identifies student misconceptions about climate change (Activity 4).

·         Develop an effective climate change learning tool using an inquiry-based environment (Activity 5).

·         Develop a summer institute to assist and encourage high school teachers to implement climate change subjects into their classrooms (Activity 6).

 

Synergistic Activities:

 

The CDP comprises six research and educational activities that are integrated and that utilize common components and methodologies.  The research activities (Activities 1-3) are linked by their common modeling tools and analysis.  The educational activities (Activities 4-6) aim to first identify student misconceptions about climate change and then using those ideas, develop and evaluate effective teaching materials.  The flowchart of the interrelationship between activities is outlined below in Figure 1. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1.  Schematic diagram illustrating the synergistic relationship between the proposed research and educational activities.  Output from the 2D model (Activity 1) will drive the various WACCM simulations (Activity 2, 3).  Output from the WACCM simulations will be used in the climate change learning module (Activity 5), which incorporates results from the misconception study (Activity 4), and produces a product that will be evaluated in the climate change institute for teachers (Activity 6).

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Collaborations:

 

The PI has developed a network of collaborators from a number of established research and educational institutions to achieve the goals of this project.  The collaborating groups include:

 

·         Professor David Karoly, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma:  Professor Karoly will assist in the analysis and interpretation of the global modeling results as they relate to stratospheric perturbations and climate variability (Activities 2, 3). 

·         Professor Terry Nathan, Atmospheric Science Program, University of California, Davis:  Professor Nathan will participate in the development of analysis tools for evaluating the 2DQBO model output (Activity 1). 

·         Digital Library for Earth System Education (DLESE):  DLESE will provide assistance with the design and distribution of the climate change learning tool (Activity 5) using the Visual Geophysical Exploration Environment (VGEE).  Contact:  Mary Marlino, DLESE Director.

·         Unidata Program Center, UCAR Office of Programs:  The Unidata Program Center will help with the implementation of climate model data into VGEE (Activity 5) using the Interactive Data Viewer and the Thematic Real-time Earth Data Distributed Servers.  Contact:  Dr. Mohan Ramamurthy, Unidata Program Center Director.

·         Bay Area Earth Science Institute (BAESI), San José State University:  BAESI will collaborate on the design of effective climate change teaching materials (Activity 5) and the development of a climate change institute (Activity 6).  Contact: Ellen Metzger, BAESI co-director.

·         Mathematics, Engineering, Science Achievement (MESA) Schools Program:  MESA's extensive network to K-12 science teachers of underrepresented students will be used in the development of the climate change institute (Activity 6).  Contact:  Dr. George Castro, San José MESA Director.

 

Expected Outcomes:  The CDP plan aims to advance the physical understanding of the connection between stratospheric variability and climate change, while promoting a sound understanding of these and more general climate change issues to students and teachers.  The expected outcomes include: 

 

·         Advances in the understanding of how stratospheric perturbations affect climate.

·         Improvement in student and teacher understanding of climate change science.

·         Improvement in the quantity and diversity of students studying climate related fields. 

 

Research and Educational Activities

Research Models:

The proposed research will rely on a variety of atmospheric models to better identify physical mechanisms and understand modes of variability important to climate. 

 

2DQBO:  The model is originally described in Cordero and Nathan (2000) and simulates the processes responsible for the generation and maintenance of the equatorial QBO.  A unique component of this model is the inclusion of eddy- and zonal-mean ozone feedbacks, which in turn affect both the zonal wind and ozone QBO.  The model atmosphere is driven by prescribed wave fields at the lower boundary (~100hPa), where wave and zonal-mean fields of wind, temperature, and ozone are self-consistently computed within the model domain.  Because the strength and phase of the modeled zonal wind and ozone QBOs agree well with observations, the model serves as an excellent platform to study the mechanisms responsible for QBO variability. 

 

WACCM and CAM:  The NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) are state of the art general circulation models designed for climate research.  While these models share common code, the WACCM is designed to span a range of altitudes up through the thermosphere.  Because the proposed research hinges on accurately simulating large scale wave structure in the middle atmosphere, the framework of the WACCM is especially advantageous.  Currently, the CAM v2.1 is running on local SJSU machines and is being tested on a high performance supercomputer, although the recently released CAM 3.0 will eventually be installed.  An updated version of WACCM (2) is also expected by the end of 2004 using the updated CAM 3.0 code and including interactive chemistry.  

 

SJCTM:  The SJSU chemical transport model (SJCTM) is currently being run on local machines in the Meteorology Department.  The model is derived from the Monash University CTM (Hall and Waugh 1997) and is driven by off-line wind fields and utilizes parameterized chemistry from a photochemical 2D model.  The PI has extensive experience with this model (Li et al. 2002; Li et al. 2003) using both meteorological analysis and global climate model (GCM) winds.

 

Computational Resources:  The 2DQBO and SJCTM only require modest computational resources and thus are currently being run on local personal computers at SJSU.  Both WACCM and CAM, however, require more significant processing to enable multi decadal integrations.  The Department of Meteorology has recently acquired, though NSF grant (EIA 0216661), a 56 node 112 processor Linux cluster super computer that is available for use by the PI.  Both WACCM and CAM will be run on this computer and thus it is not anticipated that further computational resources will be required for this project.